It is a terrifying moment in history to be reliant on humanitarian aid to survive.

At a time when humanitarian needs are approaching record highs, aid funding is collapsing. Economic instability, climate shocks, conflict, and displacement are pushing millions of people closer to poverty and crisis, yet the resources available to support them are shrinking at an unprecedented pace.

In Southwest Asia and North Africa (SWANA), the consequences will be profound. Across a region grappling with water scarcity, deep inequality, youth unemployment, protracted displacement, and the devastating impacts of conflict and occupation, humanitarian assistance is often all that separates survival from catastrophe. As aid budgets are slashed, the gap is shrinking.

The immediate trigger for the current crisis has been the dismantling of USAID, historically the world’s largest humanitarian donor. But focusing solely on the United States risks missing the bigger story. The funding emergency confronting the humanitarian sector today is not the result of a single political decision. It reflects a broader retreat from international solidarity.

Across Europe and beyond, governments are reducing Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) while increasing defense spending and turning their attention inward. Countries such as France and Germany have announced dramatic cuts to aid budgets, contributing to what is expected to be one of the steepest declines in development assistance in modern history.

The impacts are already visible. The United Nations’ humanitarian appeals remain chronically underfunded, while major crises across the region continue to receive only a fraction of what is required. In Yemen, Syria, and the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt), funding shortfalls are forcing humanitarian agencies to scale back programmes, close services, and make impossible choices about who receives support and who does not.

For families living through crisis, these decisions made far away have very real implications. Skipped meals, untreated illnesses, children withdrawn from school, and livelihoods lost. A Lancet study found that aid cuts could lead to an extra 9.4 million deaths by 2030.   In Yemen, millions more people are expected to face food insecurity as aid programmes contract. While in Syria, local organisations that provide lifesaving support to vulnerable communities are already struggling to remain operational.

For decades, there was a broad, if imperfect, consensus that wealthy nations had both a moral responsibility and a strategic interest to support populations beyond their borders. Humanitarian assistance was never purely altruistic. It was also an investment in global stability, public health, economic resilience, and collective security.

That consensus is now fraying.

The rise of nationalist politics, growing economic anxiety, and increasingly polarized public discourse sees international solidarity eroding. As governments face pressure to prioritize domestic concerns, assistance to people experiencing crises elsewhere is increasingly portrayed as optional.

Aid is an investment in global stability. The consequences of hunger, conflict, disease outbreaks, and state fragility do not stop at national borders. When health systems collapse, diseases spread. As livelihoods disappear, displacement increases, and when desperation deepens, instability follows. The world is more interconnected than ever, yet political narratives increasingly divide us, where we believe suffering elsewhere has no bearing on our own futures.

The recent Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo offers a stark reminder of these risks. Years of investment strengthened the systems needed to detect and contain outbreaks. As funding declines, those gains become increasingly difficult to sustain. Similar patterns are emerging across sectors and regions.

The humanitarian sector must confront an uncomfortable reality. While for years agencies warned about rising needs and chronic underfunding, there was an assumption that donor support would ultimately keep pace. This no longer holds. Aid organisations must change how they operate. While governments must reverse the most damaging cuts, traditional funding sources can no longer be taken for granted. This means investing more deeply in locally led responses, diversifying sources of financing, and rethinking how humanitarian action is delivered in an era of permanent resource constraints.

As resources become harder to secure, there is a growing danger that humanitarian assistance becomes more politically conditional, flowing not to where needs are greatest, but where strategic interests align. The humanitarian principles of impartiality and independence become harder to defend when funding becomes increasingly concentrated and contested.

What is unfolding today is bigger than a funding crisis. It is a test of whether values of international solidarity can survive this era of nationalism, geopolitical competition, and economic uncertainty.

The choices governments make now will determine not only whether millions of people receive food, healthcare, protection, and education. They will determine whether we continue to believe that human dignity matters equally, regardless of which side of a border a person happens to be born.

If that principle is abandoned, the loss will not be measured only in funding shortfalls or cancelled programmes. It will be measured in lives.

Sally Abi Khalil

Sally Abi Khalil is a Senior International Fellow at the Asfari Institute for Civil Society & Citizenship and Regional Director-SWANA at Oxfam.